Predict & Refine

Use data and simulations to forecast outcomes and refine the roadmap for impact.

Evaluate the potential impact of the set of interventions described in the population health roadmap by predicting outputs and outcomes and forecasting costs. The Novartis Foundation has developed the CARDIO4Cities intervention simulator based on systems dynamics modeling, which can be used during the planning phase, to pressure test interventions and further refine the CV population health roadmap accordingly.

Use additional evidence

Consider implementing additional qualitative and quantitative analysis to inform the roadmap planning and implementation approach. Intervention “Targeting of high risk populations” in CARDIO4Cities in Practice provides details on leveraging advanced analytics to identify drivers of CV risk factors and inform the targeting of interventions. Intervention “Detecting barriers to care“ in CARDIO4Cities in Practice provides an overview of qualitative research that helps understand barriers and opportunities for better CV risk factor control.

Use simulation models

Simulation models can inform intervention selection by forecasting the outcomes of a specific set of interventions and estimating the health benefit prior to implementation. The Novartis Foundation and its technical partners run a CARDIO4Cities intervention simulator which can be adapted to each urban environment, using local data. The simulator forecasts a city’s CV disease burden if CARDIO4Cities interventions are planned and demonstrates the expected health benefits and costs of CARDIO4Cities interventions. By leveraging simulations, the initiative can make more informed decisions on the best interventions according to the specific needs of the city.

Communicate widely

Once the population health roadmap has been reviewed and refined, be sure to share the insights from the workshop, and the final roadmap, with all stakeholders involved in the process. If you include a broader group of stakeholders in Step 1, circle back to them with an update. Create accessible summaries for the public, stakeholders, and funders, emphasizing the expected benefits and how success will be measured. Build momentum through community engagement, aligning the plan with local values and needs. This is not just a plan – it’s a commitment to healthier lives, and it must be treated with the urgency and care that such a commitment deserves.